Decision theory

We've been summarizing and writing titles, but have also started to evaluate arguments. Decision theory examines the basis and process of making decisions.

One critical thinking framework (*) illustrates how this works.




* from Humboldt State University, via Craig Nelson

1. Summarize the author's argument

  • List each main point separately.
  • State it as if you were the author ("Baclofen stops the craving for alcohol", not "the author thinks that Baclofen stops the craving...") so as to be able to use fewer words.

2. Evaluate the strength of evidence

  • Factual claims
    • List the factual claims relevant to each main point separately.
    • Evaluate each: very solid, solid, suggestive, plausible, improbable, highly unlikely.
    • Quality and quantity of data
    • Other support?
  • Strength of overall argument
    • Internal consistency
    • Considered other explanations/hypotheses?
    • Overall probability?

3. Burden of proof

For each main point and for the overall argument:

  • Should we accept until shown to be be probably false, or reject until shown to be probably true?
  • Why? Consider positive and negative consequences, applications, and social impacts.
  • What level of certainty should we insist on?

4. Decisions

Again for each main point and the overall argument:

  • Compare the strength of evidence to the level of proof and,
  • decide whether to accept or reject.

Assignment

On March 11, 2011, a huge earthquake hit off the coast of Japan. Soon after a massive water wave, a tsunami, caused by the earthquake rolled ashore. Japan relies heavily on nuclear power. One of the plants, Fukushima Daichi, survived the quake, but did explode after the tsunami, releasing some radiation. Watch these video highlights of the earthquake and tsunami.

Then, read this re-evaluation of nuclear power after Fukushima by UK writer/environmentalist George Monbiot. You will probably want to print it off for easier reading.

There are a couple of British-isms in here that you may find unfamiliar. Look up things like a "weir" as necessary.

Using the critical thinking framework above as a guide to writing up an outline of his argument, you will write up a short response to this article. Identify 3-5 main points that the author makes.

Then, choose two of your points to examine in more detail. Write up a paragraph about each of the two points you've chosen, in which you discuss how "believable" you find each point, using considerations of evidence and the burden of proof (#2 and #3 in the list above).

After you've written these 2 paragraphs, write one last paragraph in which you:

  • Write one sentence summarizing his overall argument,
  • and write a few sentences synthesizing your overall attitude towards the argument. This is in the vein of #4 above.

(Note that you don't have to write a point-by-point 'decision' on each main point.)