Here come the COPs (...and the NCA ...and the IPCC

Global warming has been talked about for a while. It has also been the subject of vigorous political debate.

Maybe, just maybe...

  • We should get some experts together, shut them in a room with all the most recent papers and studies they can find, let *them* argue for a while, and have them tell us what's going on?

    This is the idea behind the NCA (USA) and the IPCC (the world)

  • Since this is a global problem, howzabout representatives of different countries get together and agree that they're going to DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT?

    This is the idea behind the Paris Agreement and the annual Conference of Parties (COPs)

    The IPCC

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ipcc.ch)

    • Started by... the UN and the World Meteorological Association to assess the status of climate change.
    • Who's in? It consists of 100s of scientists, diplomats, and politicians, and attempts to reach consensus among these folks in regular reports.
    • Can we read their reports? Here they are. Different groups within the IPCC publish in different years, with major updates (AR4 2007, AR5 2013, AR6 2021) about every 7 years.
    • Received the Nobel Peace Prize (2007) along with Al Gore.

    Their measured consensus (2017) (phrased cautiously, and precisely with regard to uncertainty)

    • There has been an increase in world temperatures of approximately 1${}^o$F (0.5 C) since 1957,
    • which, with a likelihood of 90% is due to human activity rather than being a natural effect.

    Compare to Al Gore:

    "There is overwhelming and incontrovertible evidence of global warming".

    Recent IPCC reports

    What about natural variation?

    Sunspots

    Many theories have been put forward to explain temperature changes as a result of natural processes. One of these is that the sun has a lot of natural variation of sunspots (sudden explosions of energy).

    If increased sunspot activities causes higher temperatures on Earth....(write your answers)...

    1. What should the average global temperature do in years with more sunspots?


    2. What should the average global temperature do in years with less sunspot activity?


    Sunspots can be easily observed and counted. Here's an animation of global temperature vs number of sunspots for 129 years up until 2009.

    The NCA

    The National Climate Assessment (globalchange.gov.)

    • Started by... An Act of Congress in 1990. The goal is reports on the lates observed and projected climate impacts in the United States.
    • Who's in? At last count, some 750 experts were involved in writing: Academic researchers (science / economics / sociology), Govt officials (local / state / federal), experts drawn from non-profits and the corporate worlds and more, plus reviewers!
    • Can we read their reports? You betcha! Start at globalchange.gov. These have been coming out since 2000, about once every 7 years.
    NCA 5 was released yesterday (Nov 14, 2023)!

    Browse through the "Overview" (link above). Read in more depth a few of the sections that interest you the most.

    1. What are 2 negative impacts or messages that caught your attention? Write briefly about why you found those interesting.
    2. What are 2 positive messages or insights that caught your attention? Write briefly about why you found those interesting.
    3. What's at least one question that occurred to you as you were reading?

    The Paris Agreement and COPs

    The Paris Agreement (2015) is an international treaty

    • Started by... The UN convoked representatives from many countries to come to agreements about targets for emissions mitigation, adaptation to climate change, and how to pay for it (finance).
    • Who's in? 195 countries have signed on to (they are "parties" to) the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Their goal is to limit the rise in average global temperatures to 2${}^o$ C, and preferably less than 1.5${}^o$ C.

      To do this each country comes with voluntary "nationally determined contributions">. How are all these countries doing?

    • How are countries doing with those voluntary goals? Climate Action Tracker has been documenting those pledges, progress, and how much they matter.
    • Can we read their reports? There goal is not to write reports. They keep meeting once a year to hash out details and changes to the Paris agreement. These annual meetings are called COPs, "Conference of Parties".

      The next meeting--starting November 30 -- COP28 will be held in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. A major oil-producing nation. A big issue that's shaping up is a push for a committment to phase-out fossil fuels.

      The big issue at COP 27 was a loss and damage fund that rich, historically carbon-emitting countries would contribute to, to support poor countries that have emitted very little carbon.

    3 Emotional stances...

    Al Gore: The Climate Crisis Is the Battle of Our Time, and We Can Win (NYTimes, 20 Sep 2019) - optimism about what we can do with technology and building political power.

    Jonathan Franzen: What if We Stopped Pretending? The Climate Apocalypse is coming. To prepare for it, we need to admit that we can't prevent it. (New Yorker, 8 Sep 2019)

    Once you accept that we’ve lost it, other kinds of action take on greater meaning."

    The executive secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, who led the process for the Paris Agreement (2015)
    Christiana Figueres: Stubborn Optimism

    Optimism is a choice. And in as much as we create that vision and that future, then we begin to unleash an enormous amount of human potential and human dedication and determination to make that future a reality.

    Where does this quote fit in?

    We cannot all do great things. But we can do small things with great love.

    Mother Teresa.

    Image credits

    Michael Summers, Yuya Tamai